TEC Canada is pleased to provide the monthly Andersen Economic Report exclusively to our members to offer professional updates on the current economic environment in Canada, the USA, and globally. As the former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.
December 2023 PREVIEW:
Canada | Temporary Factors Impact Canadian GDP, but Resilient Consumer Spending Indicates Economic Strength
While Canada’s 3rd Quarter GDP shows contraction, it’s crucial to recognize that this decline is primarily attributed to temporary factors like strikes and wildfires, not a tightening of Bank of Canada interest rates. Strong consumer spending on durable goods suggests that the economy remains robust. These transitory events may distort the headline figures, but they do not necessarily reflect the overall health of the Canadian economy, which appears more resilient beneath the surface.
United States | Inflation Surges, Posing Challenge to Expected Rate Cuts; Job Market Stability Amid Economic Uncertainties
Despite expectations of inflation stabilizing around the Fed’s 2.0% target, recent estimates point to a potential acceleration in the core PCE price index to a 3.1% annualized rate for November. This raises the possibility of a delayed timeline for rate cuts. However, despite concerns of a “loosening economy,” October’s employment growth remains in line with the mid-year trend, signaling ongoing stability in the labor market amid broader economic uncertainties.
Global Economic Outlook | Commodity Price Volatility: Oil Plummets, Building Material Costs Decline
Excluding copper, commodity prices have shown a general decrease, notably in oil, which dropped to below $75 per barrel in November from $89.43 in September. Building material prices, influenced by higher mortgage rates, have also seen a decline. Despite these shifts, the outlook for U.S. housing starts has improved, particularly for single-family homes. The interplay of these factors reflects dynamic trends in both commodity markets and the housing sector, influenced by various economic variables.
Excited to dive into the full December 2023 Andersen Economic Report? As a valued member of TEC Canada, you can access the complete report under the ‘Resources’ section of the TEC Canada App!
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