TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Andersen Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.

Canada:

  • Canada’s economy continues to rebound quickly as a result of relaxed restrictions.
  • Negative condo investor returns, rising vacancies and an over-supplied condo market point to a possible condo price crash and blow to construction activity.
  • The oil industry slump will continue in 2021. Capital spending intentions in the conventional oil & gas sector are down 38% from the year prior – the oil sands sector is down by 19%.
  • Political leadership in Canada is more likely than the U.S. to push for another round of widespread lockdowns as the 2nd wave emerges.

U.S.:

  • The monthly flow in the U.S. of personal savings is around 20% of incoming personal disposable income in June and July. It has never been this high; in the last 2 recessions, it was around 5-6%.
  • Core capital goods orders are up – this is a strong indicator for business confidence. High tech manufacturing is well above pre-COVID levels at 4.9% y/y (August).
  • In many industries (chemical, fabricated metal products, electronic components and wood materials) supply is pressed to keep up with demand. Raw material prices have jumped indicating there may be more inflationary momentum in the system than recognized.
  • If Biden wins the Presidency, it is likely that Republicans will retain control of the Senate and Congress will be divided. Thus, Biden’s more controversial platforms (taxing unrealized capital gains, the Green New Deal, Medicare for all, carbon tax on fossil fuels etc.) will likely not find their way into legislation.

International:

  • China’s economy is gaining momentum and its construction and manufacturing sectors show promising gains.
  • Commodity supply issues continue to play a role in global commodity pricing. Even with vaccines available, the virus will likely limit production of commodities in the next year – in September, the price of iron ore reached a 6-year high.

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