A Brief Overview
In the dynamic landscape of the Canadian business environment, CEOs have grappled with a myriad of challenges in the past year. The turbulence spans from contending with inflation, navigating tight labor markets, and overcoming supply chain disruptions to adapting to new regulations, thwarting perpetual cyberattacks, and mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events. This tumultuous backdrop has necessitated business leaders to adopt agility as a cornerstone and prompted a comprehensive reevaluation of every facet of their operations.
Meanwhile, on a quarterly basis, TEC Canada diligently conducts surveys among its members, a cohort comprising CEOs, KEY Executives, and business owners of small-to-medium enterprises. The analysis of these surveys is meticulously undertaken by Dr. Peter Andersen, the former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department. These TEC Canada members, typically leading enterprises with employee counts ranging from 50 to 500 and annual revenues spanning $1 million to $500 million, showcase a distinctive ability to respond promptly to emerging opportunities.
However, the resilience of TEC Canada members is being tested by the headwinds of high interest rates and stricter credit conditions. Particularly, small businesses within this cohort encounter hurdles in securing loans, rendering them more susceptible to the risks associated with escalating interest rates and constricting credit conditions. The latest CEO survey, featuring over 400 responses and maintaining a consistent participation rate of 25% over the past year, sheds light on how TEC Canada members are navigating these challenging conditions.
Highlights
Download the Report
Unlike other business outlook surveys that only include the largest firms in Canada, our CEO Confidence Index digs deep into what is happening in various provinces, revealing regional trends and providing a unique insight into the challenges and opportunities that matter most to TEC Canada members. Download our latest CEO survey now!
Tariff Impacts
Tariffs have become a critical concern for TEC members, with over 80% expecting a significant business impact and confidence levels dropping sharply in the latest survey. The issue has escalated to crisis levels, particularly affecting Ontario and Quebec, and is shaping both business strategies and federal election priorities. In response, TEC CEOs are prioritizing domestic partnerships and focusing on Canadian markets over reshoring or exploring new exports.
Business Confidence
Business confidence among TEC members has dropped sharply, with nearly 70% expecting worsening conditions over the next year—up from 42% last quarter—especially in Quebec and Ontario. Profitability concerns now outweigh sales revenue concerns, with a national net negative outlook of -26%, a dramatic shift from a positive balance just three months ago. While the sales outlook has weakened, it remains slightly positive overall, with Alberta leading in optimism and BC showing the only negative sentiment.
Employment and Investment
Despite declining business confidence, the overall employment outlook remains surprisingly positive, with 36% of TEC respondents still planning to increase hiring—particularly in Alberta and Quebec—despite economic pressures. However, business investment plans have taken a significant hit, with 29% now expecting to reduce fixed spending, up from 17% last quarter. Alberta is the only province where investment sentiment remains positive, marking a sharp contrast to the previous survey.
Download the Report
Unlike other business outlook surveys that only include the largest firms in Canada, our CEO Confidence Index digs deep into what is happening in various provinces, revealing regional trends and providing a unique insight into the challenges and opportunities that matter most to TEC Canada members. Download our latest CEO survey now!
About Dr. Peter Andersen
Dr. Peter Andersen is an independent consulting economist specializing in economic forecasting. He obtained his doctorate in economics from Harvard University. Early in his career he was Assistant Chief of the Bank of Canada’s Research Department where he advised the Governor and Bank of Canada management on economic conditions and the economic outlook. Later as a partner with a national management consulting firm, Andersen was an economic consultant and advisor to a wide range of companies. He has always emphasized communication and the need to put economic analysis into terms that are useful for business decision-making. Dr. Andersen also spent several years with several major Bay Street investment dealer firms before founding Andersen Economic Research Inc. His clients are widely distributed across a broad range of corporations and financial institutions throughout North America. His objective is to act as a filter, separating the signals from the noise, in order to provide clients with the useful information that they really need.