TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Andersen Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.
- Canada’s housing sector is performing very well. House prices have defied the earlier government agency forecast of a double-digit percentage decline. Strong buyer demand is allowing higher construction costs to be passed on to new home buyers.
- Overall employment growth accelerated in Canada in September, with most of the gains coming from full-time work. Though these numbers are still 3.7% below pre-COVID levels.
- Wholesale building materials sales up 8.7% y/y and exports to the U.S. are up sharply.
- Retail sales have fully recovered – they are up 4.2% from pre-virus February level. Vehicle sales have far exceeded consensus – up 6% y/y.
- Don’t expect a 2nd recession even with new daily cases well above their previous 2nd peak (July). Only a return to a nationwide lockdown would disrupt the economy enough to push it back into recession.
- The negative outlook for commercial construction compares with a positive outlook for warehouse, storage space and industrial construction. There is a growing trend for ‘ground-scrappers’ – these low-rise buildings will fuel upgrading, renovation and repair, rather than new construction.
- China is in a robust economic recovery. If China is able to avoid a second COVID-19 wave, their economy will be in a great position in 2021.
- There is increasing upward pressure on prices for non-energy commodities, materials and supplies in 2021.
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