TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Anderson Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.
Political events in early 2019 could be highly disruptive to personal, business and financial confidence. The direction being taken by the U.S. trade war with China could be transformative; they are expected to complete talks by March 1*. The 116th U.S. Congress began January 3; with Democrats controlling the House of Representatives, USMCA may not be ratified and Canada’s trade relationship with the U.S. remains at risk.
- Canada’s economy is looking better with an employment increase in private sector full-time hiring during November. Given such a strong employment report and signs of stronger exports, the Bank of Canada will find it difficult not to increase its policy rate.
- GDP growth for 2019 could be stronger than the Fed’s forecast of 2.3%; as a result, expect more than the anticipated two Fed rate increases.
- Trade war uncertainty has created a need for safe-haven investments in the U.S. bond market. A strong USD typically has a negative effect on internationally traded commodity prices causing belt-tightening and slower global growth.
*U.S.-China Trade War: In 2017, the US launched an investigation into Chinese trade policies and imposed tariffs on billions of dollars worth of Chinese products. Beijing retaliated. In December 2018, both countries agreed to halt new trade tariffs for 90 days. The Dec. 1 arrest of Meng Wanzhou, a top executive of Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies Corp., set into motion an escalating string of events in which Canada sees itself increasingly as collateral damage.
> How Western multinationals are responding to the escalating U.S.-China Trade War
> Our trade with China is bigger than you think – and exporters are getting worried
> Huawei saga will freeze trade talks, hurt Canadian investment in China: experts