TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Andersen Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.

Despite mass hysteria, the 2-yr/10-yr Treasury yield curve, the ‘gold standard’ in recession predictability, is not truly inverted, nor is it the only factor to consider in recession forecasting. Weekly jobless claims in the U.S., particularly in the manufacturing field, serve as a strong indicator of the impact of the U.S./China trade war and the potential for recession. With the trade war predicted to continue into 2020, and the U.K. likely leaving the EU before October 31, the global economy is in trouble.

Canada:

  • Outperformed the U.S. in the 2nd quarter; an important point for the federal election in October.
  • However, trade war fears, energy sector headwinds, retreating business investment and flat consumer demand will hold Canada’s economy back.

U.S.

  • 75% probability of no recession by 2020 U.S. election.
  • More states reported month-over-month employment growth in July than June with widespread regional strength.

International

  • Uncertainty in the U.S./China trade war has increased an already unprecedented amount of negative yielding sovereign debt.
  • Germany is possibly heading to recession, impacting the European banking system, likely causing a spill-over effect on credit availability in North America.

 

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

>Global Recession Signals Flash Again as German Business Confidence Falls to its Weakest in 7 Years
>Consumer Worries Cloud Best Canadian Output Gain in 2 Years
>Yield Curve Inversion ‘Suspect’ Asserts Expert, Art Cashin

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