What’s the road to economic recovery for Canada, the U.S. and across the globe? Discover below. TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Andersen Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.
- Bank of Canada forecasts 6.5% GDP growth in 2021. They also intend to increase interest rates in 2022 – expect to see at least 4 rate increases next year.
- Housing starts and existing home sales have hit record levels, driven largely by high levels of personal disposable income and low mortgage rates. Demand is outpacing supply due to COVID containment measures and building materials/supplies are on back order.
- The U.S. has now recovered to pre-COVID levels of GDP, only behind the 4th quarter of 2019 by 0.86%. Outside of China, no major country has achieved that yet.
- President Biden’s infrastructure package – ‘The American Jobs Plan’ ($2T) and ‘The American Families Plan’ ($1.8T) will lead to long-lasting economic expansion extending beyond mid-decade. Though the top worry is rising risk in inflation.
- The shape and timing of the global business cycle is determined by the availability of vaccines around the world. With many countries still struggling, a full global economic recovery now seems unlikely in 2022.
- Despite many countries grappling with the 3rd wave, the global outlook has improved substantially in the last 3 months. The outlook for oil and other commodity prices remains positive as global economic growth is expected to pick-up in the later half of 2021.
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