Charles St-Arnaud outlined several factors influencing U.S. trade decisions, particularly under former President Donald Trump, should he return to office.

“There are at least four ‘versions’ of Trump when it comes to trade,” he explained:

1. Transactional Trump – Using tariffs as leverage to extract concessions.
2. Isolationist Trump – Prioritizing American self-sufficiency over global cooperation.
3. Imperialist Trump – Seeking access to foreign resources through economic pressure.
4. Industrialist Trump – Using tariffs to push investment and manufacturing back into the U.S.
   

“He doesn’t necessarily have a singular vision—he’s applying pressure in multiple areas, hoping one of them will deliver a win,” Charles said.

Canada, which exports nearly 25% of its GDP to the U.S., is highly vulnerable to these shifts. “Trump knows that Canada is reliant on the U.S. market. He also knows that by imposing tariffs, he can create economic pain and force concessions.”

Not all regions of Canada will feel the impact equally. Ontario and Quebec, with their strong manufacturing bases, are the most exposed.

“Ontario, in particular, will bear the brunt of the impact,” Charles said. “It exports about 25% of its GDP to the U.S., and much of that is in manufacturing—an industry highly sensitive to price changes.”

Quebec is similarly at risk, though slightly less so because its economy is more diversified. Meanwhile, Alberta and New Brunswick, which depend heavily on energy exports, could see more moderate effects since oil and gas face lower tariff rates than manufacturing goods.

“Manufacturing is far more price-sensitive than energy,” he explained. “So if tariffs hit that sector hard, job losses and economic downturns in Ontario and Quebec will be much steeper.”

Despite the risks, Charles St-Arnaud believes the current crisis could serve as a catalyst for positive change in Canada’s economic policies.

“If there’s a silver lining, it’s that this moment might finally push us to address long-standing economic challenges,” he said. “For decades, we’ve talked about productivity, interprovincial trade barriers, and market diversification—but we haven’t acted fast enough. This might be the wake-up call we need.”

For example, Canada’s reliance on the U.S. has historically made it difficult to justify investments in infrastructure that would open up new trade opportunities with Asia, Europe, and other global markets. Now, with tariffs looming, businesses and policymakers may have a new incentive to invest in ports, railways, and alternative trade routes.

“We’ve been slow to act because, frankly, the U.S. was a comfortable market. But that comfort is disappearing,” he said. “The question now is: will we use this moment to reposition ourselves for long-term economic resilience?”

For leaders of small and medium-sized businesses, the road ahead will be challenging, but there are steps they can take:

1. Be Proactive in Advocacy – “Business leaders should engage with policymakers, trade associations, and chambers of commerce to ensure their voices are heard. Government decisions are often shaped by those who speak up the loudest.”

2. Strengthen Domestic and International Ties – “Companies should explore new domestic opportunities and build relationships with alternative international trade partners beyond the U.S.”

3. Prepare for Workforce Adjustments – “While skilled workers remain in demand, lower-skilled positions may face higher risk. Companies should invest in training and automation to increase efficiency.”

4. Explore AI and Technology Investments – “AI isn’t just about reducing headcount—it can enhance productivity by eliminating low-value tasks and freeing up employees to focus on strategic work.”

Above all, Charles advises businesses to think long-term. “This isn’t just about surviving the next six months—it’s about positioning your company for the next decade,” he said.