TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Andersen Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.
The next recession is forecasted for late 2021 and is expected to last longer than previous ones. The U.S. economy is still going strong, thanks to a third consecutive month of rising consumer sentiment; however the trade war with China should be watched closely as it is the key to next year’s interest rates. The global economic outlook is less promising – Brazil and Italy fell into outright recessions and the volume of world trade declined. Though the Canadian economy is growing at a slow 1% annualized rate, the construction sector and record-high immigration rates provide optimism; respectively, these lead to low mortgage rates and a boost to the working age population.
- A healthy job market and upturn in the housing sector will keep the Bank of Canada from cutting its policy interest rates on December 4.
- Immigration is exceptionally strong – Canada’s population growth grew 1.4% over the last 12 months – the strongest by far in the G7. Population surges have important implications for provincial economic trends and regional Canadian housing markets.
- Business investment still slumping as a result of continuing declines in the energy sector; both investment and exports are experiencing quarterly declines. Additionally, after adjusting for price increases, retail sales performance is mediocre.
- Personal savings rate continues to rise – up to 8.3% in September compared to 1.7% in Canada.
- Strongest economic growth in states west of the Mississippi and east of California – Texas (4.7%) and Wyoming (4.2%) show the highest Q/Q growth. The Midwest, North East and East Coast report much slower growth – Michigan and Illinois (1.1%) report some of the slowest growth.
- Renewed uptrend in crude oil production, leading to higher machinery demand and manufacturing activity. The U.S. exported more total crude oil and petroleum products in October than it imported; this is the first time since 1949.
- Global business confidence is down sharply – OECD global confidence index plunged to the lowest level in 7 years along with imports to China (manufactured products and raw materials) dropped below 2018 levels.