TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Andersen Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.
It is no longer a conversation of if there will be a recession, but rather, what’s the timeline and cause. Economists have speculated that the on-going trade war between the U.S. and China will be the basis, however, the American consumer has yet to be hit in price fluctuation; signaling if something is going to spiral the U.S. into recession, it may be a factor(s) other than tariff confidence/price effects. Additionally, if newly elected Prime Minister Boris Johnson sticks to his promises to leave the EU, with or without a deal before November, the global economy is highly likely to slowdown in 2020.
- Although Canada’s economy performed better than expected in Q2, outpacing the U.S. in fact, a lack of economic balance with the continuing slump in the oil sector gives the Canadian consumer an uncertain outlook.
- Regional variation in Canadian housing markets paints an abstract piece: Resale/new construction activity have strengthened Halifax, Montreal and Ottawa; Toronto shows signs of improvement in existing home sales and housing pricing; the Vancouver market remains depressed and housing in Alberta continues to be bleak.
- Consumer confidence is unshaken by the trade war; job market indicators remain positive, 4th consecutive month of strong retail sales and drop in mortgage rates has consumers rushing to lock-in lower rates.
- Americans are saving a substantial amount of their disposable income; the ratio of saving to disposable income is 6.1%.
- If there is further escalation in U.S./China trade war, or a ‘no deal’ on Brexit before the October deadline, expect the global economy to slowdown next year, with a high risk in global commodity pricing.
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Home Sales Edge Higher in June, With Strong Gains in Ontario, Quebec
No-deal Brexit Could Cause £30bn Economic Hit, Watchdog Says