A Brief Overview
In the dynamic landscape of the Canadian business environment, CEOs have grappled with a myriad of challenges in the past year. The turbulence spans from contending with inflation, navigating tight labor markets, and overcoming supply chain disruptions to adapting to new regulations, thwarting perpetual cyberattacks, and mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events. This tumultuous backdrop has necessitated business leaders to adopt agility as a cornerstone and prompted a comprehensive reevaluation of every facet of their operations.
Meanwhile, on a quarterly basis, TEC Canada diligently conducts surveys among its members, a cohort comprising CEOs, KEY Executives, and business owners of small-to-medium enterprises. The analysis of these surveys is meticulously undertaken by Dr. Peter Andersen, the former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department. These TEC Canada members, typically leading enterprises with employee counts ranging from 50 to 500 and annual revenues spanning $1 million to $500 million, showcase a distinctive ability to respond promptly to emerging opportunities.
However, the resilience of TEC Canada members is being tested by the headwinds of high interest rates and stricter credit conditions. Particularly, small businesses within this cohort encounter hurdles in securing loans, rendering them more susceptible to the risks associated with escalating interest rates and constricting credit conditions. The latest CEO survey, featuring over 400 responses and maintaining a consistent participation rate of 25% over the past year, sheds light on how TEC Canada members are navigating these challenging conditions.
Highlights
Download the Report
Unlike other business outlook surveys that only include the largest firms in Canada, our CEO Confidence Index digs deep into what is happening in various provinces, revealing regional trends and providing a unique insight into the challenges and opportunities that matter most to TEC Canada members. Download our latest CEO survey now!
Hiring, Sales, and Other Trends
AI is not currently replacing employees, with nearly half (46%) of TEC CEOs planning to increase their workforce in the next 12 months—consistent with last year’s survey results (45%). This optimism persists despite a challenging economic outlook, as 51% of respondents expect their firms’ sales revenues to grow, with Quebec leading at 61% and other provinces around 50%. TEC’s surveys will continue to evolve, incorporating member feedback to address emerging challenges and opportunities. Members are encouraged to share their insights with their Chair to shape future surveys.
Economic Outlook
Business confidence among TEC CEOs remains low despite three interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada since June, totaling 75 basis points to 4.25% by early October. Nearly half (47%) of surveyed CEOs believe economic conditions in Canada have worsened over the past year, and 72% do not expect improvement over the next 12 months. On the domestic front, TEC members are worried about tax uncertainty, with 33% indicating that capital gains taxes could significantly impact future business sales.
Pricing and Cost Pressures
Facing ongoing economic challenges, TEC CEOs are showing a shift toward more conservative pricing strategies, particularly outside Alberta. Cost pressures persist, with CEOs widely expecting compensation cost inflation to remain elevated at 4% to 5%, ranging from 58% in BC to 45% in Alberta.
Download the Report
Unlike other business outlook surveys that only include the largest firms in Canada, our CEO Confidence Index digs deep into what is happening in various provinces, revealing regional trends and providing a unique insight into the challenges and opportunities that matter most to TEC Canada members. Download our latest CEO survey now!
About Dr. Peter Andersen
Dr. Peter Andersen is an independent consulting economist specializing in economic forecasting. He obtained his doctorate in economics from Harvard University. Early in his career he was Assistant Chief of the Bank of Canada’s Research Department where he advised the Governor and Bank of Canada management on economic conditions and the economic outlook. Later as a partner with a national management consulting firm, Andersen was an economic consultant and advisor to a wide range of companies. He has always emphasized communication and the need to put economic analysis into terms that are useful for business decision-making. Dr. Andersen also spent several years with several major Bay Street investment dealer firms before founding Andersen Economic Research Inc. His clients are widely distributed across a broad range of corporations and financial institutions throughout North America. His objective is to act as a filter, separating the signals from the noise, in order to provide clients with the useful information that they really need.