TEC Canada CEO Confidence Index: Q3 2024 CEO Survey

A quarterly survey measuring the confidence of Canadian business leaders of small-to-medium enterprises.

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A Brief Overview

In the dynamic landscape of the Canadian business environment, CEOs have grappled with a myriad of challenges in the past year. The turbulence spans from contending with inflation, navigating tight labor markets, and overcoming supply chain disruptions to adapting to new regulations, thwarting perpetual cyberattacks, and mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events. This tumultuous backdrop has necessitated business leaders to adopt agility as a cornerstone and prompted a comprehensive reevaluation of every facet of their operations.

Meanwhile, on a quarterly basis, TEC Canada diligently conducts surveys among its members, a cohort comprising CEOs, KEY Executives, and business owners of small-to-medium enterprises. The analysis of these surveys is meticulously undertaken by Dr. Peter Andersen, the former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department. These TEC Canada members, typically leading enterprises with employee counts ranging from 50 to 500 and annual revenues spanning $1 million to $500 million, showcase a distinctive ability to respond promptly to emerging opportunities.

However, the resilience of TEC Canada members is being tested by the headwinds of high interest rates and stricter credit conditions. Particularly, small businesses within this cohort encounter hurdles in securing loans, rendering them more susceptible to the risks associated with escalating interest rates and constricting credit conditions. The latest CEO survey, featuring over 400 responses and maintaining a consistent participation rate of 25% over the past year, sheds light on how TEC Canada members are navigating these challenging conditions.

Highlights

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Unlike other business outlook surveys that only include the largest firms in Canada, our CEO Confidence Index digs deep into what is happening in various provinces, revealing regional trends and providing a unique insight into the challenges and opportunities that matter most to TEC Canada members. Download our latest CEO survey now!

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Company Workforce

There are several questions in the Survey dealing with payroll. They range from asking about the upcoming change in employment, hiring plans, layoffs, and employee compensation. To summarize, TEC CEOs are more cautious than a year ago. For example, a net positive 35% expect that their firm’s total number of employees will increase over the next 12 months. While this is basically unchanged from 34% three months ago, it is down substantially from a net positive 42% this time a year ago.

Business Conditions

A net 31% say conditions have worsened, compared with a year ago. This is the balance of opinion, in other words the per cent saying improved, minus the per cent saying worsened. This finding is unchanged from our April Survey.

Inflation

Only 12% expect that inflation 1-year ahead will be down to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. There has been some moderation in inflation expectations though. A year ago, approximately 50% expected inflation 1-year ahead to be 4% or higher. This is now down to 33%.

Download the Report

Unlike other business outlook surveys that only include the largest firms in Canada, our CEO Confidence Index digs deep into what is happening in various provinces, revealing regional trends and providing a unique insight into the challenges and opportunities that matter most to TEC Canada members. Download our latest CEO survey now!

Download the Report

About Dr. Peter Andersen

headshot of Dr. Peter Andersen
Dr. Peter Andersen is an independent consulting economist specializing in economic forecasting. He obtained his doctorate in economics from Harvard University. Early in his career he was Assistant Chief of the Bank of Canada’s Research Department where he advised the Governor and Bank of Canada management on economic conditions and the economic outlook. Later as a partner with a national management consulting firm, Andersen was an economic consultant and advisor to a wide range of companies. He has always emphasized communication and the need to put economic analysis into terms that are useful for business decision-making. Dr. Andersen also spent several years with several major Bay Street investment dealer firms before founding Andersen Economic Research Inc. His clients are widely distributed across a broad range of corporations and financial institutions throughout North America. His objective is to act as a filter, separating the signals from the noise, in order to provide clients with the useful information that they really need.

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