TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Andersen Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members to offer professional updates on the current economic environment in Canada, the USA, and globally. As the former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.
June 2025 PREVIEW:
Canada | Job Losses Mounting | BOC Faces Pressure to Shift Toward Job Support | Growth Hinges on Spending and Exports
Canada’s economy remained resilient in Q1 2025, but rising unemployment and declining business sentiment signal growing headwinds. With job losses in March and April and the PMI nearing post-pandemic lows, the Bank of Canada is under pressure to pivot from inflation control to supporting employment. Near-term growth will rely on consumer spending, exports, and major resource projects like LNG Canada and Trans Mountain, while policy support through a July tax cut is expected.
United States | Recession Risks Recede | Tariffs May Lift Inflation, But Momentum Remains | Early Signals Urge Strategic Caution
U.S. recession risks have eased, with Q2 GDP expected to grow at a 2.4% annual rate and inflation remaining under control. Tariff-related price increases may begin mid-year, but a temporary rise to around 3% inflation is unlikely to threaten overall growth. Even so, continued weakness in leading indicators points to the need for cautious planning and focused investment.
International |Â LNG Surge Fuels North American Growth | Export Capacity Set to Double by 2028 | Tariffs Continue to Pressure Key Sectors
North America’s expanding LNG export capacity is driving significant growth prospects, underpinned by rising demand in Asia-Pacific and easing U.S.-China trade tensions. While several liquefaction projects across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico position the region for a doubling of LNG exports by 2028, tariff-related challenges persist in key sectors like lumber and metals, impacting prices and operations.
