TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Andersen Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.
With tariffs potentially climbing to 30% on all Chinese trade, business investment and commodity prices may crash – leading to a U.S. and Canadian recession beginning in Summer 2020. Globally, the spread of negative interest rates could aggravate the trade war shock, causing banks to reduce outstanding loans. However, the U.S. economy produced surprising results to close Q3, growing at a rate of 2%. The growth is largely attributed to monthly gains in employment, real income, industrial production and retail sales, pointing to a 65% probability that the U.S. business cycle stretches beyond the November 2020 elections.
Canada
- If next U.S. recession comes within 12-18 months, Alberta will face hard times in the early 2020s.
- Although unemployment reached a historic low nationally, Alberta (7.2%) and B.C. (5%) both increased in August. Alberta’s struggles are attributed to pipeline constraints, while B.C.’s are expected given its role as Canada’s gateway to China.
- Flat retail sales and a year-over-year decline in manufacturing shipments lead to uncertainty in business investment plans.
U.S.
- Trade war has not yet effected U.S. industrial production. In fact, manufacturing, mining and utilities all rose for the third increase in 4 months.
- New home sales up 18% in August compared to last year, driven by the continued strength in the south. Additionally, the rebound in the Midwest of regional housing starts, along with strength in the housing sector is a key factor for preventing a recession before the 2020 elections.
International
- International uncertainty has caused the USD to soar, making it difficult for developing countries to service their USD denominated debt, especially if they’re commodity producers.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
>Canadian Consumers are Less Ready for a Recession Than They Were 11 Years Ago
>Why an End to the U.S./China Trade War Could be Close
>Risk of 2020 Recession Could Increase Global ‘Breakdown in Trust,’ Business Forum Told
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