Andersen Monthly Economic Report – May 2019

juin 7th, 2019|Insights|
  • Peter Anderson Monthly Economic Report

TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Anderson Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.

CANADA

  • There was a record-breaking surge in labour force employment in April (a monthly increase of 106,500) which suggests that businesses believe that the economic weakness in the 4th Quarter of 2018 and the 1st Quarter of 2019 will be temporary.
  • An extended and unpredictable trade war would have an immediate negative effect on commodity markets and the Canadian dollar.
  • China’s trade ban on Canadian agricultural products (canola, peas, soybeans, pork and other crops) will also weaken exports.
  • Canadians are tapped out: Consumer spending is running at a faster pace than income; and the ratio of personal saving to disposable income is down to only 1.1%.

UNITED STATES

  • Business investment continues to advance, partly reflecting America’s oil and gas boom and a strong gain in business spending on software applications and products.
  • U.S. consumer price inflation has been low and stable – so low in fact that the Federal Reserve has done an about-face with a shift towards an easier monetary policy stance.
  • If there is no sign of a trade deal by the time of the G-20 meetings in Japan on June 28-29, financial and foreign exchange markets could go wild.
  • An extended U.S./China trade war could actually provide an economic boost for other Asian countries that could replace China in America’s supply chain.

INTERNATIONAL

  • The increased likelihood of a prolonged and escalating U.S./China trade is bad news for internationally traded commodities.
  • Lumber prices have bottomed and began to edge higher in February.

 

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

Financial Post: The Bank of Canada is very worried about the U.S.-China trade war getting worse, Wilkins says

Bloomberg: A $600 Billion Bill: Counting the Global Cost of the U.S.-China Trade War

Fortune: Manufacturers Are Considering Leaving China. But It Isn’t All Because of the Trade War

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