Andersen Monthly Economic Report – November 2018

décembre 19th, 2018|Insights|
  • Peter Anderson Monthly Economic Report

TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Anderson Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.

REPORT SUMMARY

Brexit, USMCA and the politics of oil are the most immediate threats to the global economy going into 2019. Britain could fall into a serious recession with Brexit; if this happens, there would be a stall-out in the EU. A U.K. and EU stock market crash would spread around the world, causing shaken global consumer and business confidence as well as downward pressure on world oil prices.

CANADA

  • Canada’s GDP Report released on November 30, 2018, shows the business sector pulling back on capital spending, a sharp decline in spending on machinery and equipment, and stalled-out economic growth in the third quarter.

UNITED STATES

  • The expected growth rate in the U.S. for 2019 is 2.7%. While it will not match 2018’s 3.0% growth, it will still exceed growth in any other G-7 country.

INTERNATIONAL

  • Americans and Canadians have been too complacent about Brexit. If there is no Brexit deal reached by March 29, 2019, there could be chaos in overseas financial markets, increased risk aversion, and other indirect effects on Canada and the United States*.

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*Brexit: A referendum was held on June 23, 2016, asking U.K. voters whether the country should leave or remain in the European Union. The Leave side won by 52% and the U.K. has until March 29, 2019 to reach a withdrawal agreement with the EU. Britain’s Parliament will vote on whether to approve before Jan. 21, 2019.

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