TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Andersen Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.
The current inclination is that a war between the U.S. and Iran is unlikely. More on that in the additional resources below. Given the steps towards de-escalation in the U.S./China trade war, foreign investors will no longer seek U.S. government bonds, which will strengthen global commodity prices. With less buying in the U.S. bond market, mortgage rates will remain construction-friendly in both the U.S. and Canada. There is a predication that the U.S. business cycle will continue to grow in 2020, however, the longer a business cycle runs, the more vulnerable the economy becomes. If a recession were to happen, it may be triggered by the bursting of a credit bubble, perhaps in China, other parts of Asia or in other emerging market economies. In Canada, retail sales have significantly declined; 4th Quarter real GDP growth has been revised to almost zero.
- 8 of the 11 retail subsectors (81% of the retail sector) report monthly declines; constant-dollar retail sales are back where they were in mid-2017
- Thanks to Canada’s exponential population growth, there are pockets of opportunity for Canada’s home builders – particularly in ON, QC and BC
- The U.S. housing sector recently registered this quarter as a contributing factor to GDP growth – single-family homes are up by 16.9% from a year prior
- Another strong quarter with annualized GDP growth rate at 2.3% measured from the previous quarter. As long as there is decent job growth, personal expenditures will keep on growing
- Due to suspect loans, vacant housing and a murky shadow banking system, China’s central bank (People’s Bank of China) injected 800 billion yuan (114.9B USD) into their banking system to free up cash for lending. Time will prove if their central bank can handle a potential credit crunch