TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Andersen Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.
- Wage costs are accelerating in Canada. The average hourly wage rate in Canada is now up y/y by 5.2% – a year ago, it was under 1%.
- There has been a noticeable decline in Canada’s labour force participation in the last two months. This has increased concern about possible longer-term worker shortages.
- The 2022 annual housing starts number will be the 2nd highest ever recorded. However, 2023 will be much different – expect a decline of nearly 25%, pushing it under 200,000 units.
- Despite a surge in employee cost inflation, inflation-adjusted (constant dollar) private wages and salaries actually declined by 3.1% over the 12-month period ending June 2022. This means that the Fed’s latest interest rate increases are unlikely to reverse elevated wage and salary inflation.
- The 528,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in July was more than double the consensus expectation. The recession risk for 2023 is still high but there is enough evidence of momentum in the system to avoid one until year end.
- The prospect of slow economic growth in China in 2023 is having a negative effect on the outlook for a wide range of commodity prices. Continuing COVID lockdowns and debt problems are likely to hold China’s economy back.
- Russian state gas company Gazprom has warned that European natural gas prices could spike sharply higher this winter. This would intensify Europe’s inflation problems. Higher natural gas prices in Europe would have spill-over effects on gas prices in North America as well as on the price of crude oil.
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