TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Andersen Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.
- Expect four more rate increases in the second half of 2022. The business prime lending rate, currently at 2.70%, is expected to be 4.20% or more by year-end 2022.
- The combination of higher interest rates and persistently disruptive inflation is expected to reach a tipping point this fall. Mortgage rates will likely hit levels that will cause a pullback of home buying. House prices will likely retreat from unsustainable levels in the most overvalued markets.
- There is some underlying good news. A recent survey in Canada shows an increase of 7.8% in private capital spending intentions in 2022 for non-residential construction and machinery and equipment. It also reported that public sector capital spending intentions in Canada show a 9.8% increase for 2022.
- In the best-case scenario from the Ukraine War, inflation remains in the 7-8% range for the remainder of 2022 before moving down to 4-5% in 2023.
- Trade logistics and banking transactions will not return to normal. Supply problems will continue. After a spring pick-up in response to the end of the Omicron wave, expect an increasingly sluggish U.S. economy, with economic growth approaching only 1% by year end.
- The food producing, energy, automotive and electronic industries are experiencing new supply disruptions because of the war in Ukraine and China’s pandemic lockdowns.
- Ukraine’s commodity infrastructure is seriously damaged; it cannot recover quickly. It is a big supplier of grains and neon gas (used in semiconductor production).
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