TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Anderson Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.
We now expect that the surge in the U.S. economy will carry on through 2019 and into 2020. The U.S. has surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer but with capacity utilization rising and workers that are in short supply, we are now on inflation watch. Uncertainty around NAFTA froze investment plans in Canada*.
• There is an elevated level of business uncertainty in Canada and unwillingness to expand payroll budgets. Companies appear to be waiting for the outcome from trade and tariff developments.
• The U.S. federal government debt is rising quickly. The U.S. federal deficit is expected to exceed $1.0 trillion in 2019 and reach $1.5 trillion in 2020, compared to $666 billion in 2017.
• The tariff war between the U.S. and China could cause a significant slowdown in China’s economy.
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*Please note: This report was released prior to the announcement of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). For more information on USMCA, please see the following resources:
> What We Know About the New USMCA Trade Deal
> The USMCA Explained: Winners and Losers, What’s In and What’s Out
> What You Need to Know About USMCA (Video)