TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Andersen Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.
Uncertainty continues to loom regarding the U.S./China trade war, impacting global commodity pricing. Some economic experts have feared a U.S. recession due to escalating tariffs on trade with China, the government shutdown and mass closings of retail stores, however, economic momentum and high consumer confidence has combated this assumption. To add to the concern regarding global economic confidence, oil demand has dipped in the last month leading to stagnant economic growth in oil consuming countries.
- Amazing April and May employment numbers, particularly in self-employment in Ontario and B.C., signals no recession nationwide in 2019
- Canada’s exports continue to remain weak with volume of total goods exported increasing but remaining flat. The small improvement was largely attributed to exports of gold
- ‘Retail Armageddon’ attributed for 7000+ stores closing, however, consumers are spending high in non-store retailing
- Job market is tight with high and low-skill worker shortages existing. The U.S. needs 80,000 net new jobs per month to match growth in the workforce
- If trade war worsens and causes a severe market reaction, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has pledged a similar economic tactic as the “Greenspan Put” in 1987, countering any reaction with liquidity and credit
- Annual U.S. crude oil production has offset major cuts in Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia and the U.S. Energy Information Agency has forecasted a record 13.3 million b/d produced in 2020
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