TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Anderson Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.
The U.S. became a net exporter of natural gas on an annual basis in 2017. As it continues to increase, Canadian natural gas will face competition from low-cost U.S. natural gas. Additionally, oil production is booming in the United States. The Energy Information Administration is forecasting that the U.S. will become a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products in 2020, impacting the overall U.S. trade balance, the U.S. dollar, the strength of the U.S. economy and America’s need for Canadian oil.*
- British Columbia appears to have the strongest economic prospects. It is not being held back by structural manufacturing problems, it has the best provincial finances among major provinces, and over the next 2-3 years, B.C. residents do not face the same risks of government spending cutbacks or higher taxes.
- Most American business economists are warning of a recession. A study by the National Association of Business Economists of its member showed 10% expect a recession this year and 42% expect one in 2020. The remainder, including Dr. Andersen, believe it won’t happen until well past that.
- President Trump has postponed the March 1st tariff increase on Chinese imports. A China-U.S. trade deal seems therefore much more likely now and the trade war uncertainty – a big confidence disruptor – has moved to the back burner.
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*Canada’s competitiveness in the world market: With the U.S. becoming a net exporter of natural gas in 2017 and expected to become a net energy exporter in 2020, what is the impact on Canadian exports? How are you addressing your industry’s and Canada’s competitiveness in your TEC group?
> Mullen Group CEO urges Canadian energy to look past U.S. customers
> Canada continuing to lose ground in global competitiveness
> What Canada needs to improve competitiveness in 2019
> We’re getting a look at the true state of Canada’s economy — and it’s no world beater