TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Andersen Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.

Canada:

• Canada’s homebuilders can look forward to a strong spring selling season; the post-Omicron opening-up of the economy will immediately have a positive effect on renovation activity as it will ease labour shortages and help the building materials supply chain.
• However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has the potential to produce an energy and consumer confidence shock that could offset the momentum generated by the end of the Omicron wave.

U.S.:

• If succeeding COVID waves are less disruptive than previous ones, and if a wage-price spiral can be ruled out, it’s possible that inflation could stabilize as early as 2023 – near 3%. An indicator to follow will be vehicle prices (new and used). They could be among the first to show post-Omicron price relief.
• The Ukraine war has triggered a safe-haven flow to the USD. The Fed may therefore not have to react as aggressively with rates as some have feared.

International:

• Higher oil and natural gas prices will add to inflation in Europe, North America and the rest of the world. Disposable income will be affected, and consumer confidence will be weaker. Europe is likely to feel the impact more than the United States and Canada.
• Even in the best-case cease-fire scenario in the Ukraine War, we can expect higher oil, natural gas and food prices. The EU relies on Russia for more than one third of its natural gas consumption and about one quarter of its oil consumption.

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