TEC Canada is pleased to provide the Andersen Monthly Economic Report exclusively to our members. The former assistant chief of the Bank of Canada’s research department, Dr. Peter Andersen provides valuable economic insight to help you make better business decisions.

The consensus is that a COVID-19 vaccine and/or therapeutic treatment will be available by next April, and yet we will still expect the economic rebound to be uneven and slow. There is concern should the treatments stall, however there is also hope – Sweden’s softer no-lockdown approach (analysis in full report) proves we can coexist with the virus. In the U.S., eyes are on the next stimulus package, which is likely to come in early 2021 – if this package doesn’t include help for state and local governments, thousands of middle-class employees – police, firefighters, teachers etc. – will be laid off. With Canada handling COVID-19 far better than their southern neighbours, there is a big improvement in their 12-month outlook. While many services have yet to recover, others are at pre-COVID levels; this includes wholesale trade, finance, insurance, real estate, public administration and professional/scientific/technical services.

Canada:

  • The CAD is rebounding – up 8% against the USD from its March low-point.
  • Canada’s June employment report shows the economy has recovered about 40% of the jobs lost in March and April. Lower income earners, younger workers, women and recent immigrants have been the hardest hit by job losses.

U.S.:

  • A flat pattern of economic activity is developing and will continue into 2021 – interest rates will remain around historical lows, but credit conditions will tighten. In the next 90 days, expect to see widespread delinquencies, defaults, repossessions, bankruptcies and business failures.
  • Home building has been a strong point since the virus first struck – new home sales are up in all 4 regions with the Northeast showing the strongest year-over-year gain at 22%.

International:

  • There are 25 candidate vaccines in Phase 3 of clinical evaluation – including Oxford/AstraZeneca, Moderna/NIH and Pfizer. Phase 3 is the final stage before government approval, it is scientifically rigorous, randomized and placebo controlled.
  • There is a new commodity price cycle, which is a leading indicator for overall inflation. Base metal prices show increases – iron ore, nickel, zinc and copper.

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